EVENING UPDATE:  JULY 8,  2008

Posted at 7:50 p.m. ET

THE SMEAR

It is hard to know, without the services of board-certified psychiatrists, what is going on inside Bill Clinton's head.  But the dark side, which has popped up frequently in the last year, has come out again, as the New York Post reports:

Bill Clinton may be the master of the underhanded political slap - but can't he at least refrain from smearing an entire class of his country's war heroes in the process?

Including, inferentially, de facto Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

Sadly, self-restraint is not the thing that Bill Clinton does best; it would require just a bit too much honor from America's reigning embarrassment-in-chief.

"It's like if you know anyone who's ever a POW for any length of time," the former president opined in Aspen, Colo., over the weekend, "you will see that [they] go along for months or even years and then something will happen that will trigger all those bad dreams."

Better keep an eye on those former prisoners-of-war, in other words - you never know when they might snap.

Maybe at 3 a.m., don't you know.

It's a breathtakingly ignorant stereotype, of course - but none too surprising from a man whose chief experience of armed combat consisted of avoiding it.

The story points out that Clinton made his remarks in the middle of a speech praising Nelson Mandela - a man who did some heroic things, but in recent years has sadly seemed at times to value dictators over democrats, and has made viciously anti-American remarks. 

More:

Clinton joked in the same speech that, as someone who's "not running for anything," he can "pretty well" say whatever he wants.

If that's how he chooses to present himself, so be it.

But he'd do a big favor to the dignity of the office he held if, just once, he held his tongue in such circumstances.

Compare Clinton's behavior to the post-presidency class of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, or even, remarkably, Richard Nixon.  Clinton and Jimmy Carter have demeaned the office they held, in part because they believe they are larger than that office.

They aren't.

July 8, 2008.      Permalink          

EARLY EVENING UPDATE:  JULY 8,  2008

Posted at 5:59 p.m. ET

CLOSE CALL

This was serious, and I hope it isn't poor taste to discuss it.  But, as a former comedy writer, there are these irresistible moments...

As you know, Mr. Obama had a bit of a scare on a campaign flight yesterday.  Jake Tapper of ABC reports:

As the pilot struggled to re-gain control of the pitch of the plane - the angle of the nose of the plane - Obama was told that he and the other 44 passengers on board might have to assume the brace position upon landing, bending forward with their heads between their knees.

That ultimately did not happen, but National Transportation Safety Board chairman Mark Rosenker told ABC News' Dennis Powell yesterday that the incident "is extremely serious in this particular case."

But Tapper ends his piece with...

This was not Obama's regular campaign plane, which is being overhauled. It was a loaner, having previously been used by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY.

We are grateful that Mr. Obama, and all aboard that plane are safe.

So you can now crack all the Hillary-conspiracy jokes you want. 

July 8, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON POST:  JULY 8,  2008

Posted at 4:56 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Both our standard trackers are now out for today. Rasmussen has Obama up six over McCain, but Gallup shows Obama up only two.   Let me stress that Obama dipped to two in the Gallup survey just recently, but bounced back the next day.  I also stress, once again, that a poll is a snapshot in time.  As Americans start focusing more closely on the race, which will be during the conventions and after Labor Day, you might see greater shifts in daily tracking polls as candidates score points, or lose them.

We have to be careful when pollsters analyze their own polls.  After all, they're defending their work.  But Gallup does have some interesting history in the analysis they publish today:

The important question, however, and one addressed in detail Monday on Gallup.com, is whether his (Obama's) consistently narrow lead at this point in mid-summer bodes well for him in November.

In essence, the Gallup analysis finds that races that appear closely contested at the start of the summer tend to stay close for the duration of the campaign, up to and including Election Day. This describes the 2004, 2000, 1980, and 1960 elections.

The exceptions to this are years when, after being closely matched in early to mid-July, one of the candidates jumps into the lead following his party's national convention over the summer. In these cases -- including Bill Clinton in 1992, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Richard Nixon in 1968 -- the candidate getting the big boost out of his convention ultimately won. -- Lydia Saad

That, of course, is a key point.  Conventional wisdom, and it's only conventional, holds that Obama will get a boost from his convention because he's likely to deliver a rousing acceptance speech.  McCain would do well to counter that effect.  He could do it in three ways:  1) He could save his vice presidential choice for the convention, and choose someone exciting; 2) He could make a spectacular policy proposal that could cause the country to cheer, like some attractive plan to lower gas prices quickly; 3) He could deliver a great speech himself.

Now, on the third point, you might chuckle.  Well, so might I.  McCain is no Churchill.  In his speaking style, he's in Obama's shadow.

But wait.  Can that be turned to an advantage?  We recall that the better speaker hasn't always been elected, or has come close to being defeated.  The eloquent Adlai E. Stevenson was trounced by Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.  The orator Hubert H. Humphrey lost to the awkward Richard M. Nixon in 1968.  I dealt with this in a Power Line essay that you might wish to read here. 

I was watching McCain deliver a speech on TV yesterday.  I switched channels, and there was Obama.  I must tell you that, while Obama was dynamic, McCain was presidential.  He was calm, reasoned, his gray hair an asset. 

I have feared the side-by-side comparison of McCain and Obama in, say, debates.  After watching yesterday, my fears have eased.  If well prepared, if he does his homework and commits key phrases to memory, McCain can hold his own and project the image of wisdom and leadership. 

July 8, 2008.       Permalink          

TUESDAY:  JULY 8,  2008

Posted at 6:25 a.m. ET

CONSERVATIVES FOR BARACK?

Some odd things are happening.  Some conservatives are declaring their love for Barack Obama.  Thomas Sowell takes on this weird phenomenon, and tries to talk sense to those behind it.

What is going on?

Partly what is going on is that, in recent years, the Congressional Republicans in general-- and Senator John McCain in particular-- have so alienated so many conservatives that some of these conservatives are like a drowning man grasping at a straw.

The straw in this case is Obama's recent "refining" of his position on a number of issues, as he edges toward the center, in order to try to pick up more votes in November's general election.

Understandable as the reactions of some conservatives may be, a straw is a very unreliable flotation device.

Mr. Sowell is not kind toward the rightists who are out slumming with Barack:

Voting is a right but it is also a duty-- a duty not just to show up on election day, but a duty to give serious thought to the alternatives on the table and what those alternatives mean for the future of the nation.

What is becoming ever more painfully apparent is that too many people this year-- whether conservative, liberals or whatever-- are all too willing to judge Barack Obama on the basis of his election-year rhetoric, rather than on the record of what he has advocated and done during the past two decades.

Many are for him for no more serious reasons than his mouth and his complexion. The man has become a Rorschach test for the feelings and hopes, not only of those on the left, but also for some on the right as well.

And that is a splash of cold water in the face.  More:

Barack Obama is on record as favoring the kinds of justices who make policy, not just carry out laws. No matter how he may "refine" his position on this issue, he voted against the confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts, who was easily confirmed by more than three-quarters of the Senators.

Like people on the far left for literally centuries, Barack Obama plays down the dangers to the nation, and calls talk about such dangers "the politics of fear."

Back in the 18th century, Helvetius said, "When I speak I put on a mask. When I act, I am forced to take it off." Too many voters still have not learned that lesson. They need to look at the track record of Obama's actions.

Back in the days of "The Lone Ranger" program, someone would ask, "Who is that masked man?" People need to start asking that question about Barack Obama.

The press might consider asking it, if its elite corps can get out of its hypnotic trance, and finally realize that Obama is of this Earth. 

Well done, by Tom Sowell.

July 8, 2008.      Permalink          

THE NEW NIXON?

I recall the days when political operatives in the Republican Party unveiled "the new Nixon."  It was essentially the old Nixon with a half-smile. Make that a quarter.

Now, apparently, we'll have the new Obama.  I don't know when the cocker spaniel will be bought, but expect an application for a dog license any day now.  Bret Stephens of The Wall Street Journal sees what's happening, and feels he's seen it before:

Richard Nixon came to office with a rumored secret plan to end the war in Vietnam. Maybe Barack Obama's plan to end the war in Iraq is going to wind up being a secret, too.

The presumptive Democratic nominee set off media firecrackers last week by hinting at further refinements to his strategy for withdrawal. Previous strategies include his January 2007 call for a complete withdrawal by March 2008, followed by his March 2008 call for a complete withdrawal by July 2010, or 16 months after he takes office.

Now Mr. Obama tells us that the 16-month timeline is contingent on (1) "[making] sure that our troops are safe and that Iraq is stable" (my emphasis), and (2) the opinion of "the commanders on the ground."

And...

Also in question is the size of the "residual force" that the Illinois senator envisions for Iraq after the bulk of U.S. forces is withdrawn. Will it be an embassy guard, plus some military advisers and special-ops forces? Or, as suggested in a March paper by Colin H. Kahl, who runs Mr. Obama's working group on Iraq, an "overwatch force" of between 60,000 and 80,000 soldiers?

Here's the kicker:

Mr. Kahl's own preferences track closely with those of Gen. David Petraeus, who introduced the phrase "overwatch" in congressional testimony last September. It would involve the rapid withdrawal of three combat brigades, an emphasis on "mentoring and monitoring" Iraq's Security Forces, continued U.S. pressure on Iraq's sectarian leaders to come politically to terms, and a round of regional diplomacy.

A Petraeus fan?  On Obama's staff?  That is a crisis.

The delightful irony, of course, is that Mr. Obama's prospective task in Iraq has been made infinitely easier by the success of President Bush's surge, the very policy he derided only a year ago. How seriously this calls his judgment into question – "judgment" being the key quality on which he sold his candidacy to the Democratic Party – will be for voters to decide in November. But it does suggest he's lucky, an attribute any president would wish for. Poor Richard Nixon, most of all.

But maybe Americans will see through all this shifting, and realize there's something fundamentally dishonest about Obama, as Thomas Sowell suggests.  Senator McCain should nudge the feeling along.

July 8, 2008.       Permalink               

THE SOCIETY PAGE

Finally, a social note.  We don't usually do this here, but we make an exception today. You all probably remember Samantha Power, the foreign-policy adviser fired by the Obama campaign for calling Hillary Clinton a monster.  Well, look at her now.  From the Harvard Crimson:

Last Friday, incoming law professor Cass R. Sunstein ’75 and Kennedy School scholar Samantha Power were married in the seaside town of Waterville in Kerry, Ireland.

According to The Independent of Ireland, Power arrived at the evening ceremony in a champagne-colored Lexus covered in flowers. The 38-year-old author and foreign policy expert walked down the aisle in a cream, lace gown.

Well, at least it was a cream gown.  No pretension there.

But the champagne-colored Lexus might cause trouble if Power is ever nominated for a Federal post in an Obama administration.  It doesn't exactly symbolize the change we've been waiting for.

Power, by the way, is Irish.  Her new husband taught for years at the University of Chicago Law school, where he was a colleague of Barack Obama. 

Hmm.  Married in Ireland.  She rides up in a Lexus.  I wonder if Sunstein is keeping his name.

July 8, 2008.      Permalink